/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$137.06
Intrinsic $182.74 · 25% MOS
Current price: $620.37
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Ciena Corp (CIEN) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 12.5% for years 1–5 and 6.3% for years 6–10, anchored to 12.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $833M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $182.74 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $137.06, suggesting the stock is currently 78% overvalued against the $620.37 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$833M
Cash & equivalents
$1.2B
Total debt
$1.6B
Shares outstanding
146M