Camurus AB (CAMX.XSTO) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
TTM free cash flow is negative (kr 0.00). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsense, so this model uses the average of the last three positive years (kr 562M) instead. Treat every figure here as a rough estimate that assumes a return to historical profitability.
Conservative
kr 256.81
60% overvaluedvs kr 646.00
Base
kr 403.04
38% overvaluedvs kr 646.00
Optimistic
kr 722.51
12% undervaluedvs kr 646.00
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls inside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits inside the range but 38% above the base case. Upside from here requires beating your own base assumptions.
Base free cash flow
kr 562M
3-year average, TTM negative
Historical FCF CAGR
+94.5%
Across 5 reported periods
Market implies
23.6%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
69%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 23.6% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 20.0%, so the market is paying for growth you are not forecasting.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +94.5% a year.
Camurus AB (CAMX.XSTO) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Camurus AB (CAMX.XSTO) at about SEK 537.39 per share, or SEK 403.04 with a 25% margin of safety. At SEK 646.00 the stock looks overvalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Camurus AB's (CAMX.XSTO) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about SEK 537.39 per share for CAMX.XSTO. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around SEK 403.04. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Camurus AB overvalued based on a DCF?+
At SEK 646.00, CAMX.XSTO trades above the base-case intrinsic value of about SEK 537.39, a 16.8% premium over that estimate, so on this model it looks overvalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Camurus AB?+
The base case grows CAMX.XSTO's free cash flow at about 20.0% a year before fading, against roughly 94.5% historical free-cash-flow growth. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Camurus AB?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns CAMX.XSTO's SEK 537.39 intrinsic estimate into a SEK 403.04 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
Related stocks: Biotechnology
Spot a number that looks wrong?
Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.