Bystronic AG (BYS.XSWX) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
TTM free cash flow is negative (-CHF 17M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsense, so this model uses the average of the last three positive years (CHF 29M) instead. Treat every figure here as a rough estimate that assumes a return to historical profitability.
Conservative
CHF 349.73
141% undervaluedvs CHF 145.00
Base
CHF 435.68
200% undervaluedvs CHF 145.00
Optimistic
CHF 630.62
335% undervaluedvs CHF 145.00
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits below all three scenarios. Under these assumptions the stock looks undervalued, which is only as reliable as the growth rates you have entered.
Base free cash flow
CHF 29M
3-year average, TTM negative
Historical FCF CAGR
+0.0%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
—
No solution in range
Terminal value share
62%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
No growth rate in the tested range reproduces today's price at these assumptions.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +0.0% a year.
Bystronic (BYS.XSWX) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Bystronic (BYS.XSWX) at about CHF 580.90 per share, or CHF 435.68 with a 25% margin of safety. At CHF 145.00 the stock looks undervalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Bystronic's (BYS.XSWX) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about CHF 580.90 per share for BYS.XSWX. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around CHF 435.68. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Bystronic overvalued based on a DCF?+
At CHF 145.00, BYS.XSWX trades below the base-case intrinsic value of about CHF 580.90, a 300.6% discount to that estimate, so on this model it looks undervalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Bystronic?+
The base case grows BYS.XSWX's free cash flow at about 8.0% a year before fading. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Bystronic?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns BYS.XSWX's CHF 580.90 intrinsic estimate into a CHF 435.68 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.