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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$10.43
Intrinsic $13.90 · 25% MOS
Current price: $20.38
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (BNL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 3.4% for years 1–5 and 1.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 3.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $287M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $13.90 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $10.43, suggesting the stock is currently 49% overvalued against the $20.38 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$287M
Cash & equivalents
$20M
Total debt
$2.7B
Shares outstanding
200M