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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$10.72
Intrinsic $14.30 · 25% MOS
Current price: $8.27
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Backblaze, Inc. (BLZE) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 25.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $17M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $14.30 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $10.72, suggesting the stock is currently 30% undervalued against the $8.27 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$17M
Cash & equivalents
$45M
Total debt
$62M
Shares outstanding
59M