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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$107.66
Intrinsic $143.54 · 25% MOS
Current price: $179.63
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Avalonbay Communities Inc (AVB) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 5.7% for years 1–5 and 2.9% for years 6–10, anchored to 5.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.4B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $143.54 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $107.66, suggesting the stock is currently 40% overvalued against the $179.63 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.4B
Cash & equivalents
$121M
Total debt
$10.3B
Shares outstanding
141M