Choose a model
Each card values Armour Residential REIT a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Armour Residential REIT on dividends: the dividend grows, and the stock ends at the same dividend yield as today.
Years to project
Growth of dividend per share
Dividend per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit dividend yield
Starts at today's yield
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's dividend per share
Last twelve months
$2.88
Dividends in 2031
Grows 0.0% a year for 5 years
$2.88
Price in 2031
$2.88 ÷ 10.0% yield
$28.80
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$17.88
Plus dividends
$14.40 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ $10.92
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$28.80
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$21.60
Paying $12.45 instead gives 28.3% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$28.80
Expected return
28.3% a year
Future price, 2031
$28.80
Buy below
$21.60
Price 57% below fair valuePrice $12.45, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Armour Residential REIT (ARR) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Armour Residential REIT's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for ARR; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Armour Residential REIT's (ARR) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Armour Residential REIT's fair value is about $28.80 a share, based on its dividend per share. That assumes dividend per share of $2.88 grows about 0.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at a 10.0% dividend yield, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: earnings $16.28, book value $18.78. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Armour Residential REIT overvalued?+
At $12.45, the price is 57% below that fair value of $28.80, and buying at today's price would return about 28.3% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Armour Residential REIT valuation assume?+
Dividend per share grows about 0.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at today's yield.
What is a good margin of safety for Armour Residential REIT?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $21.60. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Real Estate Investment Trusts · Pick stocks to compare with ARR
Held by ETFs
ARR is in 55 US ETFs. The largest of them, with ARR's weight in each:
Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in ARR's SEC filings or
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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