/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$110.15
Intrinsic $146.87 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 1.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $339M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $146.87 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $110.15.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$339M
Cash & equivalents
$29M
Total debt
$508M
Shares outstanding
37M