Choose a model
Each card values Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance on ffo: funds from operations (net income plus depreciation), the cash a property trust's buildings produce, priced at a normal multiple.
Years to project
Growth of FFO per share
FFO per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/FFO
Starts at its own median P/FFO over five years
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's FFO per share
Last twelve months
$1.14
FFO in 2031
Grows 0.0% a year for 5 years
$1.14
Price in 2031
$1.14 × 9.4 P/FFO
$10.76
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$6.68
Plus dividends
$5.07 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ $3.84
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$10.53
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$7.90
Paying $2.51 instead gives 44.5% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$10.53
Expected return
44.5% a year
Future price, 2031
$10.76
Buy below
$7.90
Price 76% below fair valuePrice $2.51, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for ARI; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's (ARI) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's fair value is about $10.53 a share, based on its FFO per share. That assumes FFO per share of $1.14 grows about 0.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 9.4 times FFO, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: earnings $9.06, revenue $42.80, book value $8.10, dividends $10.14. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance overvalued?+
At $2.51, the price is 76% below that fair value of $10.53, and buying at today's price would return about 44.5% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance valuation assume?+
FFO per share grows about 0.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at its own median over five years.
What is a good margin of safety for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $7.90. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Real Estate Investment Trusts · Pick stocks to compare with ARI
Held by ETFs
ARI is in 22 US ETFs. The largest of them, with ARI's weight in each:
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETFVBR0.02%of the fund
Fidelity Enhanced Small Cap ETFFESM0.03%of the fund
JPMorgan Small & Mid Cap Enhanced Equity ETFJMEE0.06%of the fund
Invesco RAFI US 1500 Small-Mid ETFPRFZ0.04%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in ARI's SEC filings or
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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