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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$151.24
Intrinsic $201.66 · 25% MOS
Current price: $52.65
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for American Public Education Inc (APEI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 75.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $74M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $201.66 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $151.24, suggesting the stock is currently 187% undervalued against the $52.65 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$74M
Cash & equivalents
$221M
Total debt
$153M
Shares outstanding
19M