Choose a model
Each card values Alumis a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Alumis on revenue: sales per share grow and the stock trades at a normal price-to-sales multiple. For companies not yet profitable.
Years to project
Growth of revenue per share
Revenue per share; not enough history; starts at 5%
Exit P/S
Starts at its industry's median P/S
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's revenue per share
Last twelve months
$0.06
Revenue in 2031
Grows 5.0% a year for 5 years
$0.07
Price in 2031
$0.07 × 3.2 P/S
$0.24
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$0.15
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$0.15
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$0.11
Paying $6.55 instead gives -48.5% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$0.15
Expected return
-48.5% a year
Future price, 2031
$0.24
Buy below
$0.11
Price 4358% above fair valuePrice $6.55, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Alumis (ALMS) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Alumis's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for ALMS; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Alumis's (ALMS) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Alumis's fair value is about $0.15 a share, based on its revenue per share. That assumes revenue per share of $0.06 grows about 5.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 3.2 times revenue, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Alumis overvalued?+
At $6.55, the price is 4358% above that fair value of $0.15, and buying at today's price would return about -48.5% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Alumis valuation assume?+
Revenue per share grows about 5.0% a year to start, a default, because there is too little history. The exit multiple starts at its industry's median.
What is a good margin of safety for Alumis?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $0.11. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Pharmaceutical Preparations · Pick stocks to compare with ALMS
Held by ETFs
ALMS is in 36 US ETFs. The largest of them, with ALMS's weight in each:
Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in ALMS's SEC filings or
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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