Alfa Laval AB (ALFA.XSTO) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
Conservative
kr 187.61
68% overvaluedvs kr 580.30
Base
kr 291.07
50% overvaluedvs kr 580.30
Optimistic
kr 423.83
27% overvaluedvs kr 580.30
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits above all three scenarios. Under these assumptions the stock looks overvalued, so either the growth inputs are too conservative or the price is ahead of the cash flows.
Base free cash flow
kr 6.36B
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
+9.5%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
15.9%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
63%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 15.9% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 9.5%, so the market is paying for growth you are not forecasting.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +9.5% a year.
Alfa Laval AB (ALFA.XSTO) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Alfa Laval AB (ALFA.XSTO) at about SEK 387.36 per share, or SEK 290.52 with a 25% margin of safety. At SEK 580.30 the stock looks overvalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Alfa Laval AB's (ALFA.XSTO) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about SEK 387.36 per share for ALFA.XSTO. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around SEK 290.52. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Alfa Laval AB overvalued based on a DCF?+
At SEK 580.30, ALFA.XSTO trades above the base-case intrinsic value of about SEK 387.36, a 33.2% premium over that estimate, so on this model it looks overvalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Alfa Laval AB?+
The base case grows ALFA.XSTO's free cash flow at about 9.5% a year before fading, against roughly 9.5% historical free-cash-flow growth. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Alfa Laval AB?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns ALFA.XSTO's SEK 387.36 intrinsic estimate into a SEK 290.52 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.