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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$18.05
Intrinsic $24.07 · 25% MOS
Current price: $28.29
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($29M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $24.07 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $18.05, suggesting the stock is currently 36% overvalued against the $28.29 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative (-$385M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($29M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$29M
Cash & equivalents
$737M
Total debt
$36M
Shares outstanding
59M