Aedes S.p.A. (AEDES.XMIL) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
TTM free cash flow is negative (-€2M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsense, so this model uses the average of the last three positive years (€2M) instead. Treat every figure here as a rough estimate that assumes a return to historical profitability.
Conservative
€6.09
0% undervaluedvs €0.00
Base
€8.31
0% undervaluedvs €0.00
Optimistic
€13.35
0% undervaluedvs €0.00
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Base free cash flow
€2M
3-year average, TTM negative
Historical FCF CAGR
+0.0%
Across 5 reported periods
Market implies
—
No solution in range
Terminal value share
62%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
No growth rate in the tested range reproduces today's price at these assumptions.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +0.0% a year.
Aedes S.p.A. (AEDES.XMIL) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Aedes S.p.A. (AEDES.XMIL) at about €11.08 per share, or €8.31 with a 25% margin of safety. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Aedes S.p.A.'s (AEDES.XMIL) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about €11.08 per share for AEDES.XMIL. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around €8.31. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
What growth is priced into Aedes S.p.A.?+
The base case grows AEDES.XMIL's free cash flow at about 8.0% a year before fading. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Aedes S.p.A.?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns AEDES.XMIL's €11.08 intrinsic estimate into a €8.31 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.