Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
/
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$270964809460.45
Intrinsic $361286412613.93 · 25% MOS
Current price: $86.45
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for AIA Group Ltd (1299.XHKG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 15.5% for years 1–5 and 7.8% for years 6–10, anchored to 15.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $6.7B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $361286412613.93 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $270964809460.45, suggesting the stock is currently 313435291352% undervalued against the $86.45 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$6.7B
Cash & equivalents
$115.1B
Total debt
$14.7B
Shares outstanding
—