Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
€13.88
Intrinsic €18.50 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Universal Music Group NV (UMG.XAMS) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 11.7% for years 1–5 and 5.9% for years 6–10, anchored to 11.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from €1.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of €18.50 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of €13.88.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
€1.2B
Cash & equivalents
€82M
Total debt
€3.4B
Shares outstanding
1.8B