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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$-7.32
Intrinsic $-9.76 · 25% MOS
Current price: $33.62
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Ugi Corp (UGI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $238M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $-9.76 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $-7.32, suggesting the stock is currently 122% overvalued against the $33.62 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$238M
Cash & equivalents
$494M
Total debt
$6.8B
Shares outstanding
223M