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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$100.07
Intrinsic $133.42 · 25% MOS
Current price: $69.43
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 13.3% for years 1–5 and 6.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 13.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $151M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $133.42 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $100.07, suggesting the stock is currently 44% undervalued against the $69.43 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$151M
Cash & equivalents
$480M
Total debt
$819M
Shares outstanding
36M