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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$15.73
Intrinsic $20.97 · 25% MOS
Current price: $61.14
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Thermon Group Holdings, Inc. (THR) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 6.9% for years 1–5 and 3.5% for years 6–10, anchored to 6.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $33M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $20.97 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $15.73, suggesting the stock is currently 74% overvalued against the $61.14 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$33M
Cash & equivalents
$52M
Total debt
$130M
Shares outstanding
33M