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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$30.99
Intrinsic $41.32 · 25% MOS
Current price: $9.62
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (TCNNF) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 13.6% for years 1–5 and 6.8% for years 6–10, anchored to 13.6% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $237M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $41.32 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $30.99, suggesting the stock is currently 222% undervalued against the $9.62 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$237M
Cash & equivalents
$353M
Total debt
$403M
Shares outstanding
198M