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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$31.79
Intrinsic $42.38 · 25% MOS
Current price: $16.17
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Sun Country Airlines Holdings, LLC (SNCY) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 15.1% for years 1–5 and 7.6% for years 6–10, anchored to 15.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $72M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $42.38 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $31.79, suggesting the stock is currently 97% undervalued against the $16.17 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$72M
Cash & equivalents
$220M
Total debt
$569M
Shares outstanding
56M