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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$24.54
Intrinsic $32.72 · 25% MOS
Current price: $28.03
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Sirius Xm Holdings Inc. (SIRI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $32.72 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $24.54, suggesting the stock is currently 12% overvalued against the $28.03 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Cash & equivalents
$94M
Total debt
$10.0B
Shares outstanding
357M