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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$15.27
Intrinsic $20.36 · 25% MOS
Current price: $4.32
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Siga Technologies Inc (SIGA) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 19.1% for years 1–5 and 9.6% for years 6–10, anchored to 19.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $27M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $20.36 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $15.27, suggesting the stock is currently 253% undervalued against the $4.32 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$27M
Cash & equivalents
$146M
Total debt
$601016
Shares outstanding
72M