Roma Green Finance Ltd. (ROMA) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
TTM free cash flow is negative (-$13M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsense, so this model uses the average of the last three positive years ($200,221.67) instead. Treat every figure here as a rough estimate that assumes a return to historical profitability.
Conservative
$1.34
86% overvaluedvs $9.37
Base
$1.42
85% overvaluedvs $9.37
Optimistic
$1.60
83% overvaluedvs $9.37
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits above all three scenarios. Under these assumptions the stock looks overvalued, so either the growth inputs are too conservative or the price is ahead of the cash flows.
Base free cash flow
$200,221.67
3-year average, TTM negative
Historical FCF CAGR
+0.0%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
—
No solution in range
Terminal value share
62%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
No growth rate in the tested range reproduces today's price at these assumptions.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +0.0% a year.
Roma Green Finance (ROMA) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Roma Green Finance (ROMA) at about HKD 1.90 per share, or HKD 1.42 with a 25% margin of safety. At HKD 9.37 the stock looks overvalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Roma Green Finance's (ROMA) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about HKD 1.90 per share for ROMA. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around HKD 1.42. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Roma Green Finance overvalued based on a DCF?+
At HKD 9.37, ROMA trades above the base-case intrinsic value of about HKD 1.90, a 79.7% premium over that estimate, so on this model it looks overvalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Roma Green Finance?+
The base case grows ROMA's free cash flow at about 8.0% a year before fading. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Roma Green Finance?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns ROMA's HKD 1.90 intrinsic estimate into a HKD 1.42 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.