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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$361.59
Intrinsic $482.12 · 25% MOS
Current price: $33.51
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 19.7% for years 1–5 and 9.9% for years 6–10, anchored to 19.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $207M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $482.12 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $361.59, suggesting the stock is currently 979% undervalued against the $33.51 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$207M
Cash & equivalents
$16M
Total debt
$241M
Shares outstanding
21M