/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$106.45
Intrinsic $141.93 · 25% MOS
Current price: $34.71
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 76.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $495M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $141.93 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $106.45, suggesting the stock is currently 207% undervalued against the $34.71 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$495M
Cash & equivalents
$474M
Total debt
$72M
Shares outstanding
179M