DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$4.22
Intrinsic $5.63 · 25% MOS
Current price: $12.44
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Optex Systems Holdings Inc (OPXS) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 28.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $722000 in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $5.63 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $4.22, suggesting the stock is currently 66% overvalued against the $12.44 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$722000
Cash & equivalents
$4M
Total debt
$2M
Shares outstanding
7M