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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$16.48
Intrinsic $21.97 · 25% MOS
Current price: $17.25
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 26.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $21M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $21.97 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $16.48, suggesting the stock is currently 4% overvalued against the $17.25 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$21M
Cash & equivalents
$212M
Total debt
$0
Shares outstanding
59M