/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$2.35
Intrinsic $3.13 · 25% MOS
Current price: $3.40
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $15M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $3.13 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $2.35, suggesting the stock is currently 31% overvalued against the $3.40 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$15M
Cash & equivalents
$49M
Total debt
$22M
Shares outstanding
93M