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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$17.11
Intrinsic $22.82 · 25% MOS
Current price: $25.65
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.5% for years 1–5 and 4.3% for years 6–10, anchored to 8.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $141M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $22.82 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $17.11, suggesting the stock is currently 33% overvalued against the $25.65 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$141M
Cash & equivalents
$421M
Total debt
$452M
Shares outstanding
157M