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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$504.53
Intrinsic $672.71 · 25% MOS
Current price: $1589.55
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Monolithic Power Systems Inc (MPWR) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 22.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $630M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $672.71 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $504.53, suggesting the stock is currently 68% overvalued against the $1589.55 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$630M
Cash & equivalents
$1.4B
Total debt
$20M
Shares outstanding
49M