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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$326.56
Intrinsic $435.41 · 25% MOS
Current price: $1122.50
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 14.3% for years 1–5 and 7.2% for years 6–10, anchored to 14.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $11.8B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $435.41 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $326.56, suggesting the stock is currently 71% overvalued against the $1122.50 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$11.8B
Cash & equivalents
$5.3B
Total debt
$43.4B
Shares outstanding
896M