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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$176.24
Intrinsic $234.98 · 25% MOS
Current price: $402.18
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 10.1% for years 1–5 and 5.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 10.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $2.8B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $234.98 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $176.24, suggesting the stock is currently 56% overvalued against the $402.18 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$2.8B
Cash & equivalents
$4.5B
Total debt
$0
Shares outstanding
360M