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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$125.84
Intrinsic $167.79 · 25% MOS
Current price: $143.27
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Icon PLC (ICLR) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 3.2% for years 1–5 and 1.6% for years 6–10, anchored to 3.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $862M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $167.79 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $125.84, suggesting the stock is currently 12% overvalued against the $143.27 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$862M
Cash & equivalents
$647M
Total debt
$3.6B
Shares outstanding
78M