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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$231.66
Intrinsic $308.88 · 25% MOS
Current price: $303.68
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Humana Inc (HUM) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 6.7% for years 1–5 and 3.4% for years 6–10, anchored to 6.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.3B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $308.88 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $231.66, suggesting the stock is currently 24% overvalued against the $303.68 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.3B
Cash & equivalents
$22.0B
Total debt
$14.0B
Shares outstanding
121M