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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$98.78
Intrinsic $131.71 · 25% MOS
Current price: $69.42
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 108.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $209M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $131.71 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $98.78, suggesting the stock is currently 42% undervalued against the $69.42 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$209M
Cash & equivalents
$316M
Total debt
$7M
Shares outstanding
82M