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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$8.55
Intrinsic $11.40 · 25% MOS
Current price: $13.27
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 10.1% for years 1–5 and 5.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 10.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $45M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $11.40 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $8.55, suggesting the stock is currently 36% overvalued against the $13.27 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$45M
Cash & equivalents
$109M
Total debt
$131M
Shares outstanding
111M