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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$8.38
Intrinsic $11.18 · 25% MOS
Current price: $1.77
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Health Catalyst, Inc. (HCAT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 19.0% for years 1–5 and 9.5% for years 6–10, anchored to 19.0% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $18M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $11.18 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $8.38, suggesting the stock is currently 374% undervalued against the $1.77 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$18M
Cash & equivalents
$109M
Total debt
$171M
Shares outstanding
73M