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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$119.07
Intrinsic $158.76 · 25% MOS
Current price: $64.10
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Elastic N.V. (ESTC) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 151.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $322M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $158.76 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $119.07, suggesting the stock is currently 86% undervalued against the $64.10 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$322M
Cash & equivalents
$1.4B
Total debt
$592M
Shares outstanding
107M