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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$4.78
Intrinsic $6.37 · 25% MOS
Current price: $7.69
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Electro Sensors Inc (ELSE) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 1.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $667000 in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $6.37 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $4.78, suggesting the stock is currently 38% overvalued against the $7.69 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$667000
Cash & equivalents
$11M
Total debt
$0
Shares outstanding
4M