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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$11.73
Intrinsic $15.64 · 25% MOS
Current price: $11.87
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for DiamondRock Hospitality Co (DRH) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 9.5% for years 1–5 and 4.8% for years 6–10, anchored to 9.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $161M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $15.64 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $11.73, suggesting the stock is currently 1% overvalued against the $11.87 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$161M
Cash & equivalents
$39M
Total debt
$1.2B
Shares outstanding
207M