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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$117.28
Intrinsic $156.37 · 25% MOS
Current price: $226.63
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 30.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.1B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $156.37 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $117.28, suggesting the stock is currently 48% overvalued against the $226.63 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Cash & equivalents
$4.8B
Total debt
$1.3B
Shares outstanding
365M