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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$42.41
Intrinsic $56.54 · 25% MOS
Current price: $20.66
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 14.2% for years 1–5 and 7.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 14.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $69M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $56.54 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $42.41, suggesting the stock is currently 105% undervalued against the $20.66 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$69M
Cash & equivalents
$8M
Total debt
$650M
Shares outstanding
33M