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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$2.54
Intrinsic $3.39 · 25% MOS
Current price: $0.60
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Cardlytics, Inc. (CDLX) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 13.1% for years 1–5 and 6.6% for years 6–10, anchored to 13.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $10M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $3.39 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $2.54, suggesting the stock is currently 325% undervalued against the $0.60 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$10M
Cash & equivalents
$60M
Total debt
$210M
Shares outstanding
55M