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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$415.04
Intrinsic $553.39 · 25% MOS
Current price: $985.82
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Caterpillar Inc (CAT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 9.2% for years 1–5 and 4.6% for years 6–10, anchored to 9.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $9.5B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $553.39 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $415.04, suggesting the stock is currently 58% overvalued against the $985.82 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$9.5B
Cash & equivalents
$4.1B
Total debt
$0
Shares outstanding
466M