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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$115.62
Intrinsic $154.16 · 25% MOS
Current price: $27.42
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for CarGurus, Inc. (CARG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 26.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $293M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $154.16 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $115.62, suggesting the stock is currently 322% undervalued against the $27.42 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$293M
Cash & equivalents
$72M
Total debt
$188M
Shares outstanding
95M