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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$58.39
Intrinsic $77.86 · 25% MOS
Current price: $37.27
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Calix, Inc (CALX) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 18.7% for years 1–5 and 9.4% for years 6–10, anchored to 18.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $109M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $77.86 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $58.39, suggesting the stock is currently 57% undervalued against the $37.27 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$109M
Cash & equivalents
$243M
Total debt
$15M
Shares outstanding
69M