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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$122.87
Intrinsic $163.82 · 25% MOS
Current price: $203.07
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 34.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $328M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $163.82 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $122.87, suggesting the stock is currently 39% overvalued against the $203.07 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$328M
Cash & equivalents
$512M
Total debt
$2.0B
Shares outstanding
92M