/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$12.30
Intrinsic $16.40 · 25% MOS
Current price: $2.50
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Avalon Holdings Corp (AWX) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 21.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $2M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $16.40 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $12.30, suggesting the stock is currently 392% undervalued against the $2.50 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$2M
Cash & equivalents
$2M
Total debt
$32M
Shares outstanding
3M