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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$12.97
Intrinsic $17.29 · 25% MOS
Current price: $5.13
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Alpha Pro Tech Ltd (APT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 10.9% for years 1–5 and 5.5% for years 6–10, anchored to 10.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $6M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $17.29 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $12.97, suggesting the stock is currently 153% undervalued against the $5.13 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$6M
Cash & equivalents
$17M
Total debt
$8M
Shares outstanding
10M